Abstract: Camellia sinensis is a crucial resource for the tea industry in Yunnan Province. Understanding changes in its potential suitable habitat is of great significance for industrial layout and sustainable development. Based on 96 distribution points and bioclimatic variables, the potential suitable habitats for this variety in Yunnan Province were predicted by utilizing the MaxEnt model under current conditions and future climate scenarios (2030s and 2070s, including SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). The results showed that: (1) The model's prediction accuracy, measured by the area under the curve (AUC), was 0.715. The wettest monthly precipitation (BIO13, 48.3%), the driest season precipitation (BIO17, 15.8%), seasonal variation of temperature (BIO4, 11.6%), and slope (10.7%) were the key factors affecting the distribution of C. sinensis. (2) Under current climate conditions, the potential suitable habitats of C. sinensis were more in the south and less in the north, and the highly suitable areas were concentrated in Xishuangbanna, Pu'er, and Baoshan, covering approximately 4.72×10⁴ km², accounting for 12.3% of the total suitable area. (3) Under future climate change, suitable habitats generally exhibit a northward expansion trend, with significant increase in both highly suitable and moderately suitable areas. The centroid moved northwest from the current Shuangbai County to Chuxiong City. (4) Under the SSP3-7.0 scenario, the highly suitable area increased remarkably, and the northward movement of suitable habitats mean that regions such as Baoshan, Chuxiong, and Dali would become potential cultivation zones. This study could provide a scientific basis for optimizing the cultivation layout and formulating management strategies for C. sinensis.