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黄河流域陕西段植被覆盖度时空变化与多尺度驱动机制分析

Analysis of vegetation cover changes and drivers in the Shaanxi section of the Yellow River Basin

  • 摘要: 黄河流域陕西段是黄河流域高质量发展战略的关键区域,探究其植被变化及驱动力对黄河流域生态保护和可持续发展具有重要意义。基于GEE平台,估算2000—2023年研究区的植被覆盖度数据,综合运用变异系数、重心迁移模型、趋势分析法、Hurst指数和地理探测器,揭示研究区植被时空演变规律及其驱动机制。结果表明:(1)2000—2023年研究区内植被覆盖度(FVC)呈显著波动上升趋势,植被整体改善。不同覆盖等级植被重心迁移呈现空间分异:低和较低覆盖(FVC≤0.4)植被重心向东北迁移,中高覆盖(0.4<FVC≤1)植被重心则向北推移;区域植被覆盖波动性较强,高波动区(0.2≤CV)占比超2/3,且高波动区与高覆盖区空间分布高度重叠。(2)研究区大部分区域植被改善趋势可持续,渭南、咸阳及延安等地局部存在退化风险。(3)年平均降水量的解释力最强(q=0.66)是研究区FVC变化的主导因子。各因子交互作用解释力均大于单因子,自然和社会的耦合作用显著影响区域植被覆盖变化。研究结果对于黄河流域生态保护发展具有重要参考价值。

     

    Abstract: The Shaanxi section of the Yellow River basin is a key area for the high-quality development strategy of the Yellow River basin. Investigating its vegetation changes and driving forces is of great significance for the ecological protection and sustainable development of the Yellow River basin. Based on the GEE platform, this study estimated vegetation cover data for the study area from 2000 to 2023. By comprehensively applying the coefficient of variation, the center-of-gravity migration model, trend analysis, Hurst index, and geographic detector, it systematically revealed the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of vegetation and their driving mechanisms in the study area. Results indicate: (1) Vegetation cover (FVC) in the study area exhibited a significantly fluctuating upward trend from 2000 to 2023, reflecting overall vegetation improvement. Spatial differentiation was observed in the migration of vegetation centers across different coverage levels: centers for low and moderately low coverage (FVC≤0.4) shifted northeastward, while those for medium-high coverage (0.4<FVC≤1) moved northward. Regional vegetation coverage exhibited strong variability, with high-fluctuation zones (CV≥0.2) covering over two-thirds of the area, showing high spatial overlap with high-coverage zones. (2) Vegetation improvement trends are sustainable across most of the study area, though localized degradation risks exist in Weinan, Xianyang, and Yan'an. (3) Annual average precipitation exhibits the strongest explanatory power (q=0.66) as the dominant factor influencing FVC changes in the study area. Interaction effects among factors explain greater variability than individual factors alone, indicating that coupled natural and human interactions significantly influence regional vegetation cover changes. These findings provide important reference value for ecological conservation and development in the Yellow River Basin.

     

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