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中国木质林产品碳储量的长期预测

Long-term prediction of carbon storage of harvested wood products in China

  • 摘要: 核算并分析中国在用木质林产品(harvested wood products, HWP)碳库的碳储量,并对木质林产品碳库的发展趋势进行预测,为将来中国HWP碳核算研究提供数据支撑及理论参考。通过IPCC2019框架下的储量变化法、生产法、大气流动法对我国在用HWP的碳储量进行核算研究,并使用主成分分析法(PCA)识别主要影响因子。结合ARIMA时间序列模型和BP神经网络模型预测未来林产品碳库的发展趋势。①1990—2022年中国在用HWP碳库碳储量逐年增加。储量变化法框架下,2022年碳储量达到1166.84 Tg,2006至2022年储碳量年均变化量为41.83±9.99 Tg;在生产法框架下,碳储量达到830.97 Tg,其中碳储量年均变化量为27.65±8.07 Tg;大气流动法框架下碳储量年均变化量为11.88±4.76 Tg;②在多种影响因子的作用下,未来我国HWP碳储量将持续上升,但增速逐渐放缓。2060年,我国在用HWP碳储量将达到2075.4 Tg,是2022年碳储量的1.78倍。中国在用林产品碳库储碳能力巨大,碳储量主要受经济因子影响。未来碳储量增速将逐渐放缓,在“双碳”目标下,需要考虑采取相关政策措施来应对。

     

    Abstract: This study aimed to calculate and analyze the carbon storage in China’s in-use harvest wood products (HWP) carbon pool, predict the development trends of the wood products carbon pool, and provide data support and theoretical reference for future research on HWP carbon accounting in China. The carbon storage of in-use HWP in China was caculated by employing the stock change approach, production approach, and atmospheric flow approach within the framework of the IPCC 2019 guidelines. Additionally, principal component analysis (PCA) is employed to identify the main influencing factors. Combined with ARIMA time series model and BP neural network model, the future trends of carbon storage in HWP was predicted. (1) From 1990 to 2022, the carbon storage in the HWP carbon pool in China increased year by year. Under the stock change approach, the carbon stock reached 1166.84 Tg in 2022, and the average annual change of carbon storage was 41.83±9.99 Tg from 2006 to 2022. Under the production approach, the carbon stock reached 830.97 Tg, with an average annual change of 27.65±8.07 Tg. Under the atmospheric flow approach, the average annual change in carbon stock was 11.88±4.76 Tg. (2) With the influence of various factors, the carbon storage of China’s HWP was expected to continue to increase in the future, but the growth rate would gradually slow down. In 2060, the predicted carbon storage of China’s in-use HWP was expected to reach 2075.4 Tg, which was 1.78 times that of 2022. China has a tremendous capacity for carbon sequestration in its in-use HWP carbon stocks, and the carbon storage is primarily influenced by economic factors. The growth rate of carbon storage is expected to slow down in the future. Under the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, it is necessary to consider adopting relevant policy measures to address this trend.

     

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